Australia braces for volatile summer as world tracks second-hottest year on record

Australians are being warned to prepare for a potentially volatile summer, with heatwaves, bushfires, thunderstorms, floods and tropical cyclones all expected as the severe weather season ramps up. 7NEWS meteorologist Tony Auden has warned the threat is already being felt across parts of the country, with bushfire activity increasing in NSW and Queensland.

Australia braces for top five hottest summer “From here on forward, expect dry conditions and worsening conditions for fires in NSW and Queensland for the next two to three months,” he told Sunrise on Tuesday. The focus will then shift further south as summer progresses, with southern NSW, Victoria, Tasmania and South Australia facing heightened risks from hot and dry conditions. “Usually we start to see some moisture from about Christmas onwards, but that’s when southern Australia really falls into the threat area,” he said. “Southern NSW, Victoria, Tasmania, and South Australia need to be on high alert this summer for those hot and dry conditions and fires.” Global temperatures soar The warning comes as global temperatures continue to run exceptionally high.

The Copernicus Climate Change Service confirmed 2026 was the second-warmest year on record globally from January to August, behind 2024. Auden said the warmer global baseline could mean more extreme heat across Australia. Australia has already experienced an exceptionally warm winter, with the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) recording Australia’s 2026 winter as the equal third-hottest on record, while NSW, Victoria and Tasmania each recorded their warmest winter on record. The BOM has also found Australia’s 2025-26 financial year was the ninth-warmest on record, while sea surface temperatures around Australia were the second-warmest, recorded at 0.75 °C above average. Severe storms on the horizon The heat, however, will not mean Australia is necessarily facing a dry summer.

Auden said severe thunderstorms are also expected across the season, potentially bringing damaging hail and other dangerous conditions. “At the moment, it’s hard to imagine it raining over eastern Australia apart from those little showers that we’ve had. But we are expecting the first little storm outbreak in northern NSW tomorrow, then a bigger round next week,” he said. He warned that the combination of dry conditions and storms could create particularly dangerous weather. “I haven’t seen so many reports of 10cm hail in all of my career in forecasting. And with dry air, we can also get those really nasty supercell thunderstorms as well,” he warned.

Last summer’s severe weather included widespread thunderstorms and damaging hail, with the BOM recording 11 tropical cyclones in the Australian region during the 2025-26 financial year, slightly above the long-term average of 10. Where is most at risk? The weather threat will shift across the country as summer progresses. In NSW and Queensland, bushfire conditions are already a concern, particularly across the north, with dry conditions expected to persist over the coming months. Further south, southern NSW, Victoria, Tasmania and South Australia will increasingly face the threat of heat and bushfires as summer sets in.

Across northern Australia, thunderstorms and tropical systems are expected to become a greater risk as the wet season develops. Around the country as a whole, heatwaves remain a major concern, with the warmer global baseline increasing the potential for extreme temperature spikes. Auden said households should start preparing now rather than waiting for the worst of summer to arrive. “Be on alert. Watch out for those warnings and prepare the household and yard early,” he said. “Be prepared and you’ll be best placed.”