UAE, Jordan face largest share of jobs at risk from AI in Middle East, says World Bank

The share of jobs at risk of being substituted by artificial intelligence (AI) is largest in the UAE and Jordan, and smallest in Afghanistan and Pakistan, according to the World Bank’s October Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan and Pakistan (Menaap) Economic Update.

High-income economies face the most exposure because a larger share of their employment is in the cognitive occupations most susceptible to generative AI.

Across the region, the risk of substitution covers no more than about 10 per cent of jobs. By comparison, 13-20 per cent of jobs have potential for AI to raise productivity, though the bank says that potential “is far from guaranteed”.

Stay up to date with the latest news. Follow KT on WhatsApp Channels.

The UAE also has the broadest occupational footprint of AI use in Menaap.

It shows above-average AI use in 9 of 22 occupation groups, reaching beyond software into management, sales, arts and media, food preparation and personal care. The report links this to the national AI strategy launched in 2017, which targeted hospitality, retail and logistics as well as technology.

The value of work that AI tools already do or assist, measured against GDP, is highest in the Gulf, and the UAE’s ratio approaches that of Germany and the UK.

The estimate draws on a sample of one million Claude conversations published by Anthropic. The bank cautions that these users may be more educated and knowledge-intensive than the wider population, which could overstate the gains.

AI has become central to the UAE’s economic diversification and long-term competitiveness.

Guided by the National Strategy for Artificial Intelligence 2031, the country is embedding AI across government services, healthcare, energy, logistics and finance to improve efficiency and decision-making.

Lower exposure reflects the mix of jobs rather than any lead in preparedness. The bank notes that lower-income economies look even less exposed once differences in the tasks workers actually perform are taken into account. Pakistan’s online freelancers are still feeling the effects. Egypt and Pakistan are among the world’s top five suppliers on major online freelance platforms across more than 2,700 skill areas.

Since ChatGPT’s launch, the value of jobs in the most AI-substitutable skills has fallen 9.8 per cent, and the number of new workers entering those skills has dropped 12.1 per cent, compared with the least exposed skills.

The bank says AI talent is concentrated in the GCC, with a brain drain from middle-income countries, while reliable electricity and broadband are still missing in some economies.

Only 16 per cent of firms in the region introduced a new product or service in the past three years, against 29 per cent in other emerging markets.

The UAE and Saudi Arabia are the only countries in the region ranked in the global top 25 for both AI model development and high-performance computing. The UAE rose from 32nd in 2017 to 8th in 2024 in Stanford University’s Global AI Vibrancy Index, and enrolment in generative AI courses on Coursera grew 344 per cent year on year. Women account for only about one-fifth to one-quarter of enrolments in the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Egypt.

UAE ranks 6th globally for AI and human skills, top in Middle EastUAE, Saudi professionals among world’s most optimistic about AI, says new reportAI is not killing jobs in UAE, GCC, but reshaping roles, says new report