Super El Niño threatens to deepen Sri Lanka’s drought and economic woes

A potentially dangerous El Niño is gathering strength across the Pacific, with the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) warning that the climate event is expected to become very strong and continue into February 2027, raising the risks of drought, floods, extreme heat and major disruptions to rainfall patterns worldwide.

The warning has particular significance for Sri Lanka, where communities in several agricultural districts are already facing severe drought, depleted water sources and shrinking farm incomes.

The WMO said yesterday that forecasts from its Global Producing Centres show an “exceptionally high likelihood of nearly 100%” that El Niño will persist through February next year. The organisation said this is the first time one of its El Niño/La Niña updates has been so unequivocal, reflecting strong agreement among forecasting systems.

The event, driven by exceptionally warm waters in the tropical Pacific, is expected to strengthen further in the coming months, reach very strong intensity and peak towards the end of this year. Its climate impacts, however, are expected to continue well into 2027.

According to Meteorological Organization

Sri Lanka is already experiencing the consequences.

A Reuters report published on Wednesday from drought-affected areas said rainfall deficits of between 85% and 100% have been recorded in important farming regions including Ampara and Monaragala.

Wells, tanks, rivers and lakes have dried up, while tens of thousands of people are depending on government water deliveries, with some remote communities reportedly waiting up to 23 days for supplies.

The drought is also rapidly becoming an economic problem for rural communities. Croplands have withered, livestock operations have been affected and farmers who have lost their harvests are being forced to seek daily-paid employment to survive.

The latest WMO outlook also warns that the consequences of El Niño will not necessarily be uniform. The severity and timing of impacts in individual countries depend on geography, season and other climate drivers, including conditions in the Indian and Atlantic oceans.

For Sri Lanka, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) will therefore be crucial. The WMO expects a positive IOD to develop, with a September-November seasonal mean of about 0.9°C. This could modify the normal influence of El Niño on rainfall over the region.

That creates another potential risk for Sri Lanka: the country may have to prepare not only for continued drought but also for episodes of intense rainfall, flooding and landslides later in the year. Climate variability increasingly means that a prolonged water shortage can be followed by sudden and destructive rainfall rather than a gradual return to normal conditions.

For Sri Lanka, the warning should therefore be viewed as an economic and national-planning issue, not simply a meteorological forecast. Agriculture, drinking water, electricity generation, food imports, public expenditure and rural livelihoods could all be affected.