US on track for record natural gas production in 2026: EIA

Washington: US natural gas production is on track to hit a new annual record in 2026, with output forecast to average 122.5 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d), according to the latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

That would eclipse the previous annual record of 118.5 Bcf/d set in 2025, marking an increase of about 4 Bcf/d, or 3.4%, in just one year.

The new forecast also underscores the United States' growing importance in global gas markets as producers expand supply to meet rising domestic demand and record LNG exports.

''We forecast Permian gas production will average 29.2 Bcf/d in 2026, 6% more than in 2025. In the Permian region, natural gas production is driven primarily by associated gas produced during crude oil extraction and is supported by crude oil price,'' STEO said.

The increase is being driven largely by continued production growth in major shale-producing regions, particularly the Permian Basin, Appalachia and Haynesville.

Even when gas prices are relatively modest, oil drilling can generate additional associated gas, increasing overall U.S. output.

Haynesville production is also benefiting from its location near the major LNG export terminals and industrial consumers along the Gulf Coast.

Earlier EIA forecasts identified Appalachia, Haynesville and the Permian as accounting for roughly 69% of U.S. production over the 2026–27 period.

The production boom is occurring as the United States continues to expand its position as a major LNG supplier.

EIA previously forecast U.S. LNG exports at about 17.4 Bcf/d in 2026, up from 15.1 Bcf/d in 2025, with exports rising to roughly 18.6 Bcf/d in 2027.

The growth is being supported by the ramp-up of new and expanded LNG facilities, including Plaquemines LNG, Corpus Christi Stage 3 and Golden Pass LNG. EIA expects U.S. LNG exports to continue increasing as additional capacity comes online.

That makes the U.S. gas market increasingly connected to global energy markets: more American gas production can feed LNG terminals, where it is converted into LNG and shipped to buyers in Europe and Asia.

Despite record production, the outlook does not necessarily point to a sustained collapse in US natural gas prices.

The EIA's recent forecasts put the Henry Hub benchmark around the mid-$3-per-million-Btu range for 2026, with production growth helping to moderate prices while stronger LNG exports and domestic consumption provide additional demand.

The balance could become tighter in 2027. EIA has previously warned that demand growth could begin to outpace supply growth as LNG exports expand, putting renewed upward pressure on prices and drawing down storage.