Monsoon set to revive over northwest India from 28 July; Bay depression raises flood risk in eastern India

Monsoon activity is set to revive across northwest India from 28 July after remaining subdued over Punjab, Haryana and Chandigarh until the night of 27 July, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said in an update Sunday, offering relief for paddy-growing regions. Meanwhile, a depression over the Bay of Bengal has raised risks of flooding in parts of eastern India.

The IMD has forecast widespread rainfall over Haryana, Chandigarh and Delhi, and fairly widespread rainfall over Punjab between 28 July and 31 July. Himachal Pradesh, Jammu & Kashmir, Ladakh and Uttarakhand are also expected to receive widespread rainfall through 1 August, while rain activity is likely to expand to western Uttar Pradesh and east Rajasthan later this week.

The fresh spell is expected to support paddy cultivation in parts of northwest India, where monsoon activity has remained weak. Improved rainfall is likely to replenish soil moisture, raise reservoir levels and accelerate paddy transplantation in Punjab, Haryana, western Uttar Pradesh and adjoining regions, farmers and agricultural experts said.

Farmers who had delayed sowing because of inadequate rainfall are expected to step up planting as field conditions improve. The renewed monsoon activity could also support crop establishment and reduce irrigation requirements, easing concerns over moisture stress during the critical early stages of the kharif season, Bharatiya Kisan Union (Rajewal) president Balbir Singh Rajewal said.

India’s farm economy remains heavily dependent on monsoon rains. As of 17 July, farmers had planted kharif crops across 65.8 million hectares, down 4.2 million hectares from a year earlier, according to the ministry of agriculture and farmers welfare.

Separately, the weather office has said a depression lay over the northwest Bay of Bengal and adjoining Odisha-West Bengal coasts on Sunday. It is “very likely to move northwestwards, intensify further into a deep depression during next 24 hrs and cross north Odisha and West Bengal coasts between Paradip and Sagar Island around noon of 27th July 2026.”

“Under its influence, isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall with extremely heavy rainfall likely over Odisha and over Chhattisgarh on 27 July and also isolated very heavy rainfall over Gangetic West Bengal on 27 July,” the IMD added.

It has warned of a low to moderate flash flood risk in parts of Odisha and Chhattisgarh over the next 24 hours, saying heavy rainfall could trigger surface runoff, inundation in low-lying areas and localized flooding in vulnerable watersheds and neighbourhoods where soils are already saturated.

In Chhattisgarh, the alert covers Baloda Bazar, Dhamtari, Gariaband, Korba, Mahasamund, Raigarh, Raipur and Surguja districts. In Odisha, the warning has been issued for 27 districts, including Cuttack, Puri, Khordha, Bhadrak, Baleshwar, Kendrapara, Jagatsinghpur, Jajpur, Sambalpur, Sundargarh, Ganjam, Kalahandi, Kandhamal and Mayurbhanj, among others.

The advisory comes as the depression is expected to bring widespread heavy rainfall across eastern India. The IMD urged residents in vulnerable areas to remain alert, avoid waterlogged stretches and follow local administration advisories, warning that localized flooding and inundation are possible in low-lying areas.

Cumulative monsoon rainfall between 1 June and 15 July was 23% below normal, with the east and northeast recording the largest deficit at 36%, followed by the south peninsula (26%), northwest India (19%) and central India (13%).

In its monthly outlook, the IMD said India was likely to receive below-normal rainfall in July, at less than 94% of the long-period average (LPA). The forecast came after the country's driest June in more than a decade—and the fifth-driest since records began in 1901—with southwest monsoon rainfall 39.8% below the LPA. India received 99.5 mm of rainfall during the month, against the normal 165.3 mm.

Vijay C. Roy is a journalist with over 21 years of experience covering various news beats across different organisations such as Business Standard and The Tribune. In the past, he has covered beats such as finance, auto, MSME, commodities, FMCG, pharmaceutical, agriculture, IT/ITES, infrastructure and start-ups. He joined Mint in February 2025, and covers agriculture, food processing, fertilizers, environment and climate change, bringing over two decades of experience reporting on farm policy, food inflation, crop trade, and rural livelihoods.

Vijay’s areas of reporting include food security and climate change policies, focusing on their impact on different stakeholders and their implications. His expertise lies in simplifying complex agri-economic issues such as edible oil import dependence, cotton and wheat trends, fertiliser subsidies, and climate-related risks. He has covered key developments including global supply disruptions and evolving trade policies, offering both macroeconomic perspective and field-level context. Known for his credible and balanced reporting, he follows a rigorous, fact-based approach that prioritises accuracy and context. He is driven by a commitment to public interest, aiming to make critical agricultural and economic issues accessible while contributing to informed policy and industry discussions.

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