‘Indefinite’ Iran blockade: Why it changes the equation as Hormuz crisis deepens, oil supply gap widens

The Trump administration is signaling its naval pressure campaign against Iran could continue for as long as necessary.

US War Secretary Pete Hegseth said Thursday that the US could maintain the blockade of Iranian ports “indefinitely,” because American warships can be "rotated" in and out of the region.

“Indefinitely, the United States Navy can maintain a blockade like that because we'll rotate ships in and out, as we have, and we'll continue to,” Hegseth said.

The U.S. operation targets vessels entering or leaving Iranian ports and coastal areas. U.S. Central Command has said it is not intended to prevent ships traveling through the Strait of Hormuz between non-Iranian ports.

That matters because describing the operation simply as a “Hormuz blockade” can give the impression that the United States has closed the entire waterway.

Nevertheless, the operation is having consequences far beyond Iran's coastline because Iran has simultaneously restricted traffic through the strategic strait, while attacks and the threat of interception have deterred commercial shipping.

The latest US warning comes after months of fighting, intermittent ceasefire arrangements and negotiations aimed at restoring navigation through Hormuz.

A potential deal appeared within reach earlier this month, with Iran, the United States and Oman discussing arrangements for reopening the waterway. But the negotiations have since stalled, with Tehran maintaining demands over sanctions, compensation, military activity and the terms governing navigation.

Trump has said the United States has “total control” of the strait. Iranian officials have rejected that claim and insisted that Tehran retains control over passage.

The result is a dangerous stalemate: neither side appears willing to surrender the leverage that comes from controlling access to the waterway.

The blockade is designed to squeeze Iran economically by restricting its ability to export oil and receive maritime trade.

It now expects global supply to fall by about 4.3 million barrels per day, or roughly 4%, with the market facing a projected 1.27 million-bpd deficit relative to demand.

The IEA says the disruption is being driven primarily by the collapse in Middle Eastern production and exports associated with the conflict, particularly the severe disruption around Hormuz.

That is significant because roughly one-quarter of the world's seaborne oil trade normally passes through the strait, while alternatives for rerouting crude are limited.

If traders believe Hormuz will reopen within days or weeks, they can draw on inventories, reroute some cargoes and wait for normal flows to resume.